May 21, 2025
BRENTWOOD, Tenn. — Most pastors believe their churches will be around for at least another decade. According to a Lifeway Research study of U.S. Protestant pastors, 94% believe their churches will still exist in 10 years, 4% disagree, and 2% aren’t sure.
"It is encouraging to see so many pastors are confident that the church they serve will continue to serve the community where they are located," said Mark Marshall, the Georgia Baptist Mission Board's senior lead strategist for church strengthening. "The local church is one of the most resilient organisms in the world."
Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research, concurs. “Throughout the country, there are churches over 100 years old that illustrate this is not far-fetched. Most pastors value practices that reach new people and renew a congregation. The same optimism about the life expectancy of their church flows into their renewal efforts.”
"Of course," adds Marshall, "we want to see churches do more than exist. We want to see them thrive on mission to reach their community with the gospel. This is why we have started an initiative focused on revitalization of the local church in Georgia. We are also connecting churches who are struggling with strong churches who can walk alongside them until they connect with their community in an effective way."
Some pastors are more likely to feel confident in their congregations’ future. Protestant pastors in the Northeast (97%) are more likely than those in the West (91%) to believe their church will still exist in 10 years. According to the most recent Pew Research Religious Landscape Study, however, regular church attendance is less common in the Northeast than in any other region, with only 26% attending at least monthly. The Northeast is also the least Protestant region in the U.S., according to Pew Research.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, small church pastors feel the most anxiety over the future of the congregations they lead. Those leading churches with fewer than 50 in attendance are the least likely to agree their church will still exist in 10 years (88%) and most likely to disagree (8%).
“Small churches can be resilient for a long time, especially when their building is paid for,” said McConnell. “But when you can’t find someone to preach or face an unexpected expense, it can be too much for churches that are down to a handful of people.”
Recent analysis by Lifeway Research of the 2023 Annual Church Profile (ACP) of the Southern Baptist Convention found 900 congregations closed between 2022 and 2023.
Among the 49,842 active Southern Baptist congregations in 2022, 1.8% disbanded or closed, and 0.5% left or were disaffiliated from the SBC by the time the 2023 data was compiled. This is the most recent data available, as the 2024 ACP will be released in the coming weeks.
Close to 1,000 Southern Baptist churches were planted during the same time frame to offset some of the losses, but the total number of congregations affiliated with the SBC dropped by 292 from 2022 to 2023.
“The last couple of decades have seen many Americans who previously identified themselves as Christians drop any religious identity,” said McConnell. “At the same time, the most heavily Christian generations have aged and are dying. These nationwide trends are also present among Southern Baptists, who have 3.3 million fewer members than in 2006. Fewer people mean fewer local congregations.”
"This research reinforces the importance of planting new churches," said Marshall. "Georgia Baptists are excited to be partnering with NAMB in Send Georgia to plant new churches. It is not a matter of whether we plant churches or revitalize existing churches. We need both planting and revitalization. It is encouraging to see Georgia Baptists involved in both."
Churches closing was the primary reason for the drop in congregations affiliated with the Southern Baptist Convention. More than 3 in 4 of those congregations (77% or 900 congregations) disbanded or closed. Just more than 1 in 5 (22% or 260) either left the Convention or were disfellowshipped by the Convention. Of these 260, 12 are still affiliated with a Baptist state convention or local association.
Among the congregations that closed and gave a reason (893 total), most (83% or 739 congregations) simply ceased to exist. More than 1 in 10 (12%) merged into another fellow Southern Baptist congregation. Fewer became a campus of another church (3% or 28), merged into a non-Southern Baptist church (1% or 13), or never got started as a congregation (1% or 9).
Information on church closings is not always available or obtained when it happens. Of the 739 that were included as disbanded in 2023, 153 had actually shut down in 2022 or before.
The number of churches that ceased to be active members of the Southern Baptist Convention in 2023 dropped compared to analysis by Lifeway Research of 2022 but remained higher than the numbers from 2021 or 2020.
“Southern Baptists are different from some denominations, because participation is voluntary. Even notifying SBC entities that your church is disbanding is voluntary,” said McConnell. “Every local congregation is a living fellowship of believers that can experience growth, vibrancy, mere existence, decline, disbanding, and even resuming meeting again.”
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For more information, visit LifewayResearch.com and view the complete report on pastors’ views of their churches’ future and the ACP analysis.
